Flagstaff vs Surprise
The short version
- Flagstaff is cheaper overall: prices in its metro run 3% lower than in the Surprise area (BEA 2024).
- The median home costs $435,100 in Surprise and $552,900 in Flagstaff.
- Households earn more in Surprise ($96,711 vs $71,512 median).
- Surprise has the warmer winter: January highs of 65°F vs 43°F.
- Flagstaff gets far more snow: 90 inches a year vs 0.
- Surprise has more scorching days: 176 a year at 90°F or hotter vs 3.
- Surprise is growing faster: +22.5% since 2020 vs +0.5%.
- Commutes are shorter in Flagstaff (17 vs 30 minutes each way).
Side by side
| Flagstaff, AZ | Surprise, AZ | |
|---|---|---|
| People | ||
| Population (2025) | 77,260 | 175,304 |
| Growth since 2020 | +0.5% | +22.5% |
| People per square mile | 1,170 | 1,586 |
| Median age | 25.9 | 41.4 |
| Bachelor's degree or higher | 52% | 31% |
| Money and housing | ||
| Median household income | $71,512 | $96,711 |
| Median home value | $552,900 | $435,100 |
| Home value to income | 7.7× | 4.5× |
| Median rent (with utilities) | $1,645 | $2,033 |
| Metro price level (US = 100) | 100.3 | 103.3 |
| Housing price level (US = 100) | 109.0 | 121.2 |
| $75,000 elsewhere equals | $75,200 | $77,500 |
| Homeowners | 42% | 79% |
| Top state income tax | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Combined sales tax | 8.54% | 8.54% |
| Work and commute | ||
| Average commute (minutes) | 16.5 | 30.2 |
| Work from home | 13% | 20% |
| Take public transit | 2% | 0% |
| Unemployment (2020-24 avg) | 5.7% | 4.3% |
| Poverty rate | 18.2% | 8.6% |
| Weather | ||
| January high / low | 43° / 18° | 65° / 41° |
| July high / low | 82° / 51° | 105° / 80° |
| Precipitation per year | 21 in | 8 in |
| Snowfall per year | 90 in | 0 in |
| Days 90°F or hotter | 3 | 176 |
| Nights below freezing | 202 | 4 |
| Comfortable months | 4 | 4 |
| Risks, air and home prices | ||
| Natural hazard risk (FEMA, county) | Relatively Moderate | Very High |
| FEMA risk score (lower is safer) | 94.2 | 99.9 |
| Good air days, 2025 | 70% | 7% |
| Home prices, past year | +2.9% | +0.8% |
| Home prices, past 5 years | +46.7% | +35.8% |
Highlighted cells are the better value where "better" is clear (lower prices, higher income, shorter commutes). Sources: Census Bureau 2025 estimates and ACS 2020-2024, BEA 2024, NOAA 1991-2020, Tax Foundation 2026.
Weather, month by month
Most comfortable months: Flagstaff: June to September. Surprise: February to April and November.
Full monthly tables: Flagstaff weather by month and Surprise weather by month.
What $75,000 is worth
A $75,000 salary in an average-priced US city buys about the same as $75,200 in Flagstaff and $77,500 in Surprise. Moving from Flagstaff to Surprise, you would need about $77,200 to match a $75,000 salary.
Moving between Flagstaff and Surprise
IRS county-to-county migration, 2022 to 2023 tax years, for the counties that contain each city. See where else people move from Flagstaff and Surprise.
Which would you pick?
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