Merced vs Modesto
The short version
- Merced is cheaper overall: prices in its metro run 6% lower than in the Modesto area (BEA 2024).
- The median home costs $372,600 in Merced and $442,700 in Modesto.
- Households earn more in Modesto ($79,891 vs $63,122 median).
- Merced is growing faster: +11% since 2020 vs +0.5%.
Side by side
| Merced, CA | Modesto, CA | |
|---|---|---|
| People | ||
| Population (2025) | 99,724 | 219,652 |
| Growth since 2020 | +11% | +0.5% |
| People per square mile | 4,290 | 5,066 |
| Median age | 30.0 | 35.1 |
| Bachelor's degree or higher | 20% | 21% |
| Money and housing | ||
| Median household income | $63,122 | $79,891 |
| Median home value | $372,600 | $442,700 |
| Home value to income | 5.9× | 5.5× |
| Median rent (with utilities) | $1,393 | $1,690 |
| Metro price level (US = 100) | 98.3 | 104.1 |
| Housing price level (US = 100) | 78.6 | 108.5 |
| $75,000 elsewhere equals | $73,700 | $78,100 |
| Homeowners | 46% | 59% |
| Top state income tax | 13.3% | 13.3% |
| Combined sales tax | 9.03% | 9.03% |
| Work and commute | ||
| Average commute (minutes) | 28.6 | 30.2 |
| Work from home | 8% | 8% |
| Take public transit | 1% | 2% |
| Unemployment (2020-24 avg) | 11.3% | 7.2% |
| Poverty rate | 23.9% | 13.3% |
| Weather | ||
| January high / low | 56° / 37° | 56° / 39° |
| July high / low | 96° / 62° | 95° / 63° |
| Precipitation per year | 12 in | 12 in |
| Snowfall per year | 0 in | 0 in |
| Days 90°F or hotter | 100 | 90 |
| Nights below freezing | 28 | 12 |
| Comfortable months | 4 | 5 |
| Risks, air and home prices | ||
| Natural hazard risk (FEMA, county) | Relatively High | Relatively High |
| FEMA risk score (lower is safer) | 96.9 | 96.9 |
| Good air days, 2025 | 51% | 50% |
| Home prices, past year | +0% | +2.8% |
| Home prices, past 5 years | +26.4% | +25.8% |
Highlighted cells are the better value where "better" is clear (lower prices, higher income, shorter commutes). Sources: Census Bureau 2025 estimates and ACS 2020-2024, BEA 2024, NOAA 1991-2020, Tax Foundation 2026.
Weather, month by month
Most comfortable months: Merced: March to May and October. Modesto: March to May and October to November.
Full monthly tables: Merced weather by month and Modesto weather by month.
What $75,000 is worth
A $75,000 salary in an average-priced US city buys about the same as $73,700 in Merced and $78,100 in Modesto. Moving from Merced to Modesto, you would need about $79,500 to match a $75,000 salary.
Moving between Merced and Modesto
IRS county-to-county migration, 2022 to 2023 tax years, for the counties that contain each city. See where else people move from Merced and Modesto.
Which would you pick?
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